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Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone

A four-day forecast today is as accurate as a one-day forecast 30 years ago..

Weather forecasts are often seen as just a nice thing to have. Useful when planning a Sunday barbecue, or when we want to know if we’ll need an umbrella for the day. But in many ways weather forecasts are absolutely crucial: they can be a matter of life and death.

Accurate forecasts can save lives by giving early warnings of storms, heat waves, and disasters. Farmers use them for agricultural management, which can make the difference between a lost harvest or a harvest of plenty. Grid operators rely on accurate forecasts of temperatures for heating and cooling demand, and how much energy they’ll get from wind and solar farms. Pilots and sailors need them to carry people across oceans safely. Accurate information about future weather is often absolutely vital.

In this article, I look at improvements over time and the global inequalities that need to be closed to protect lives and livelihoods around the world.

Weather forecasts have improved a lot

Weather forecasting has come a long way. In 650 B.C. the Babylonians would try to predict weather patterns based on cloud patterns and movements. Three centuries later, Aristotle wrote Meteorologica , discussing how phenomena such as rain, hail, hurricanes, and lightning formed. Much of it turned out to be wrong, but it represents one of the first attempts to explain how the weather works in detail.

It wasn’t until 1859 that the UK’s Meteorological Service (the Met Office) issued its first weather forecast for shipping. Two years later, it broadcasted its first public weather forecast. While meteorological measurements improved over time, the massive step-change in predictions came with the use of computerized numerical modeling. This didn’t start until a century later, in the 1960s.

Forecasts have improved a lot since then. We can see this across a range of measurements, and different national meteorological organizations.

The Met Office says its four-day forecasts are now as accurate as its one-day forecasts were 30 years ago.

Predictions have gotten much better in the United States, too. We can see this in some of the most important forecasts: the prediction of hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center publishes data on the “track error” of hurricanes and cyclones — the error in where the hurricane hits. This is shown in the chart below, from the 1960s onwards.

Each line represents the error of forecasts for different time periods in advance. For example, 12 hours before it hits, all the way up to 120 hours (or 5 days) before.

We can see that this track error — especially for longer-term forecasts — has decreased a lot over time. In the 1970s, a 48-hour forecast had an error between 200 and 400 nautical miles; today this is around 50 nautical miles.

We can show the same data another way. In the chart below, each line represents the average error for each decade. On the horizontal axis we have the forecast period, again extending from 0 to 120 hours.

The 72-hour error in the 1960s and 70s was over 400 nautical miles. Today, it’s less than 80 miles.

Meteorologists can now make pretty accurate predictions of where a hurricane will hit three or four days in advance, which lets cities and communities prepare while preventing unnecessary evacuations that might have been implemented in the past.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produces global numerical weather models. While national weather agencies use much higher-resolution processing to get local forecasts, these global models provide a crucial input into these systems.

The ECMWF publishes analyses of its errors over time. This is shown in the chart below. 1 It shows the difference between the forecast and the actual weather outcome for forecasts 3, 5, 7, and 10 days in advance. The metric used here is the “ 500 hPa geopotential height ”, a commonly used meteorological measure of air pressure (which dictates weather patterns).

The solid line is for the Northern Hemisphere, and the dashed line is for the Southern.

Three-day forecasts — shown in blue — have been pretty accurate since the 1980s, and have still gotten a lot better over time. Today the accuracy is around 97%.

The biggest improvements we’ve seen are for longer timeframes. By the early 2000s, 5-day forecasts were “highly accurate” and 7-day forecasts are reaching that threshold today. 10-day forecasts aren’t quite there yet but are getting better.

Why have weather forecasts improved?

A few key developments explain these improvements . 2

The first big change is that the data has improved. More extensive and higher-resolution observations can be used as inputs into the weather models. This is because we have more and better satellite data, and because land-based stations are covering many more areas around the globe, and at a higher density. The precision of these instruments has improved, too.

These observations are then fed into numerical prediction models to forecast the weather. That brings us to the next two developments. The computers on which these models are run have gotten much faster. Faster speeds are crucial: the Met Office now chunks the world into grids of smaller and smaller squares. While they once modeled the world in 90-kilometer-wide squares, they are now down to a grid of 1.5-kilometer squares. That means many more calculations need to be run to get this high-resolution map. The methods to turn the observations into model outputs have also improved. We’ve gone from very simple visions of the world to methods that can capture the complexity of these systems in detail.

The final crucial factor is how these forecasts are communicated. Not long ago, you could only get daily updates in the daily newspaper. With the rise of radio and TV, you could get a few notices per day. Now, we can get minute-by-minute updates online or on our smartphones.

Low-income countries have much worse forecasts, and often no early warning systems

At home in Scotland, I can open an app on my phone and get a pretty accurate 5-day forecast within seconds. Unfortunately, this quality of information isn’t available to everyone. There are large differences in weather forecasts across the world, with a large gap between rich and poor.

As the researchers Manuel Linsenmeier and Jeffrey Shrader report in a recent paper , a 7-day forecast in a rich country can be more accurate than a one-day forecast in some low-income ones. 3

While national forecasts have improved over time across all income levels, the quality gap today is almost as wide as it was in the 1980s.

There are a few reasons for this. First, far fewer land-based instruments and radiosondes measure meteorological data in poorer countries. Second, the frequency of reporting is much lower.

This is unsurprising when we look at the amount of money spent on weather and climate information. In a paper published in Science , Lucian Georgeson, Mark Maslin, and Martyn Poessinouw looked at differences in spending across income groups. 4 This includes private and public spending on commercial products that fall within the definition of “weather and climate information services”.

This is shown as the spending per person , and the spending as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in the chart below.

Low-income countries spend 15 to 20 times less per person than high-income countries. But given the size of their economies, they actually spend more as a share of GDP.

This gap is a problem. 60% of workers in low-income countries are employed in agriculture , arguably the most weather-dependent sector. Most are small-scale farmers , who are often extremely poor.

Having accurate weather forecasts can help farmers make better decisions. They can get information on the best time to plant their crops. They know in advance when irrigation will be most needed, or when fertilizers might be at risk of being washed away. They can receive alerts about pest and disease outbreaks so they can either protect their crops when an attack is coming or save pesticides when the risk is low. That means they can use precious resources most efficiently if they have access to accurate weather forecasts. Good weather forecasts are most crucial for the poorest people in the world.

They’re also crucial for protecting against cyclones, heat waves, flooding, and storm surges. Having accurate forecasts several days in advance allows cities and communities to prepare. Housing can be protected, and emergency services can be on standby to help with the recovery.

But accurate forecasts alone don’t solve the problem: they’re only useful if they are disseminated to people so they can respond. Many of the deadliest disasters over the last few decades were accurately forecasted ahead of time. The common failure was poor communication. 5

Improving forecasts is the foundation. But these also need to be incorporated into effective early warning systems. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that around one-third of the world — predominantly the poorest countries — do not have them.

Improving forecasts — especially in low-income countries — is underrated

After the big progress in recent decades, we take good weather forecasting and dissemination for granted in large parts of the world. Making this available to everyone would make a difference.

This will be even more important as climate change increases the risks of weather-related disasters. It is ultimately the poorest, who are the more vulnerable, who will suffer the worst consequences. Better forecasts are key to good climate change adaptation.

Proper investment and financial support will be essential to close the gaps.

There also emerging technologies that could accelerate this. A recent paper published in Nature documented a new artificial intelligence (AI) system — Pangu-Weather — that can perform forecasts as accurately (or better) than leading meteorological agencies up to 10,000 times faster. 6 It was trained on 39 years of historical data. The speed of these forecasts would make them much cheaper to run and could provide much better results for countries with limited budgets.

Faster and more efficient technologies can also fill the gaps where land-based weather stations aren’t available. Sensor-carrying drones can run surveys over specific areas to build higher-resolution maps. With lower-cost and more efficient ways of turning that into forecasts, mobile technologies can disseminate this information quickly. Some companies are already sending messages to farmers in low-income countries to advise them on the best time to plant their crops.

This innovation is crucial to making countries more resilient to weather today. But it’s also essential in a world where weather is likely to get more extreme.

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Max Roser and Edouard Mathieu for their valuable feedback and comments on this article.

These charts are sourced from the following sources: Alley, R. B., Emanuel, K. A., & Zhang, F. (2019). Advances in weather prediction. Science, 363(6425), 342-344.

The Economist (2023). The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting.

Alley, R. B., Emanuel, K. A., & Zhang, F. (2019). Advances in weather prediction. Science, 363(6425), 342-344.

Linsenmeier, Manuel & Shrader, Jeffrey G., 2023. "Global inequalities in weather forecasts," SocArXiv 7e2jf, Center for Open Science.

You might wonder how this can be true when the ECMWF forecasts have so quickly improved in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. This is because most countries need to develop their own forecasts to get more high-resolution predictions.

Georgeson, L., Maslin, M., & Poessinouw, M. (2017). Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services. Science Advances, 3(5), e1602632.

De Perez, E. C., Berse, K. B., Depante, L. A. C., Easton-Calabria, E., Evidente, E. P. R., Ezike, T., ... & Van Sant, C. (2022). Learning from the past in moving to the future: Invest in communication and response to weather early warnings to reduce death and damage. Climate Risk Management, 38, 100461.

Bi, K., Xie, L., Zhang, H. et al. Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks. Nature 619, 533–538 (2023).

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An Easy Guide to Talking About Weather in English: 121 Key Words and Phrases You Need to Know

Whether you’re standing in the grocery checkout line or meeting new people at a party, the weather is a popular conversation starter.

Many of us keep the weather forecast on our phones, and it helps us decide what we’re going to do for the day.

In this post, you’ll learn all the terms you need to talk about weather in English, like describing sunny days, stormy days and all those in between —as well as why the weather is considered such a hot topic. 

How to Talk About Weather in English

1. how’s the weather / what’s it like out there, 2. what’s the temperature like (out there), 3. what’s the weather forecast, 4. what a beautiful day, 5. it’s warm and sunny outside., 6. we couldn’t ask for better weather., 7. this is the best weather we’ve had all season, 8. awful weather, isn’t it, 9. it’s boiling hot, 10. it’s freezing outside, 11. i can’t believe this weather, 12. it’s raining cats and dogs, 13. it looks like rain., 14. a storm seems to be coming this way., 15. the weather will be warming up soon., 16. it’s expected to be hotter than last year., the difference between weather vs. climate vs. temperature, more useful weather words in english, words to describe the weather in english, vocabulary for extreme weather conditions, weather clothes and accessories in english, weather idioms in english, and one more thing....

Download: This blog post is available as a convenient and portable PDF that you can take anywhere. Click here to get a copy. (Download)

Whether you’re at the coffee machine or waiting your turn at the post office, you might get into a casual conversation with the person next to you about what’s happening outside.

Here are some phrases to talk about the weather in English.

Both of these are good questions to ask if you haven’t gone outside in a while, and you’re wondering if things have changed.

Or maybe you’re still debating about whether or not you want to venture (go) outdoors, so you might ask this to someone who comes inside.

This question is asking about degrees in Fahrenheit or Celsius . However, people are typically looking for an approximate temperature:

It’s around 40°.

Of course, an answer like the following is still acceptable:

It’s really (hot/cold/warm/cool). 

If you’re planning a trip or event, you might want to know the weather ahead of time.  Forecast  simply refers to what kind of weather is expected in the coming days or weeks.

Use other adjectives like nice or gorgeous to make your descriptions more interesting.

This is a simple sentence using two or more descriptive adjectives.

It’s warm and windy outside.

Blue skies  is a phrase meaning a sign of good weather:

There’s nothing but blue skies outside.

Here the use of the comparative adjective better suggests that the weather is so good that it couldn’t get any better. You could use other comparative adjectives like nicer or more beautiful .

We couldn’t ask for nicer weather this week!

The superlative adjective best is used to show that this weather is simply the best and nothing else can be better. You can also use worse with this sentence structure.

Here’s another example:

This is the most beautiful weather we’ve had all week!

This is the worst weather we’ve had all spring! 

Using the question form can be quite refreshing, especially when you expect the person to agree with you. You could use similar adjectives like nasty or terrible instead.

Nasty weather today, isn’t it? 

The word boiling is used here as an adjective, not as a verb, to create an image of how hot it is. You could also use adverbs like extremely or really .

In this simple sentence, you may use any verb in its -ing form to describe the weather, such as pouring (raining very heavily) or sizzling (very hot).

Here’s a simple way to express your surprise. Feel free to use any other suitable noun such as storm or wind .

This is a popular idiom (expression) for saying that it’s raining heavily. Have fun with it.

Here you’re saying it looks like it might rain in the near future. It could be that you can see dark clouds or hear thunder. You could use other nouns like snow or a storm .

The phrase seems to be suggests that a storm is likely to be coming. You could also say:

Heavy rain seems to be heading this way.

Warming up means the temperatures will be rising and it’s getting warmer. The opposite of that would be:

The weather will be cooling down soon.

The phrase expected to be suggests that you think it’ll happen.

Use a comparative adjective here to compare the weather now with another time in the past. You could use other comparative adjectives like colder or less windy .

In English, the words “weather,” “climate” and “temperature” usually aren’t interchangeable. This means they have slightly different meanings.

Weather is used to describe what’s going on outside. For example, the weather can be stormy, sunny, cloudy or rainy.

Climate refers to the weather tendencies of a place. For example, the climate of Texas—a state in the United States—can be described as scorching hot summers and mild winters.

Finally, the temperature  is how hot or cold it is outside. In most countries, the temperature is expressed in degrees Celsius. But in the United States, you’ll hear the degrees in Fahrenheit.

Examples of temperatures are 85 degrees, 90 degrees and 32 degrees.

If you’re looking for more vocabulary to help you talk about the weather in English, here’s everything you need:

So there you have it—a great list of weather words and phrases to get you talking about weather like a native speaker .

I expect you’ll warm up to (get used to) these sentence structures pretty quickly!

While knowing this vocabulary is a big step forward, understanding the nuances of how native speakers actually use these terms is even more important. That’s where a resource like FluentU can come in.

Finally, remember to practice the words, phrases and questions in this post so you can feel comfortable using them in conversations.

If you like learning English through movies and online media, you should also check out FluentU. FluentU lets you learn English from popular talk shows, catchy music videos and funny commercials , as you can see here:

If you want to watch it, the FluentU app has probably got it.

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How to talk about the weather in English

by stephanieprice | Apr 19, 2018 | Vocabulary

What is the weather like where you are at today? Is it always a little unpredictable or pretty consistent? Sometimes we never know, which is why everyone is always checking the weather reports. Sometimes we simply ask people, “hey, what is the weather like today?”. In this article we will show you how to talk about the weather in english.

A beautiful day today, isn’t it? It’s warm and sunny and a lovely day for a walk in the park.

Or is it a bit chilly and cloudy where you are? Overcast skies and slightly rainy?

Or perhaps it’s hot and humid with a thunderstorm soon approaching?

Why is it that everyone always seems to be talking about the weather? Every culture and every language seems to have that one topic in common. Talking about the weather in English can sometimes be a bit tricky.  If we think about all of the countries that speak English, the climates are so very different. Take just the United States for example, the weather in New York is definitely not what the same as the weather in San Francisco or Los Angeles.

Why is it so important to know how to talk about the weather in English?

Well, in addition to the wide range of vocabulary used when talking about the weather in English, it’s also a really important part of ‘small talk’ and it makes conversations with strangers a lot easier!  We all have the weather in common so why not talk about it, all the time? Small talk is just polite conversation between two people that may not know each other very well. Talking about the weather is often how people start conversations with others.  Or when you just don’t know what to say, talking about the weather is a good and safe option.  

Conversation starter phrases about the weather in English

Here are some great ways to start a conversation.  They are all polite and friendly ways to speak about the weather in a way that isn’t so dry and boring.

• Beautiful day, isn’t it?
• Can you believe all of this rain we’ve been having?
• It looks like it’s going to storm.
• We couldn’t ask for a nicer day, could we?
• How about this weather?
• It’s so nice out today, isn’t it?
• The weather’s nice today, right?
• It’s freezing today! Hopefully it doesn’t snow.
• Wow, it’s really hot/cold for this time of year.
• It’s really been pouring all day , huh?

Each of these are friendly and easy to use. These phrases can be said to really anyone and in any situation. Starting a conversation while talking about the weather is easy, all you have to do is look outside and know a bit of vocabulary . So let’s look then to some vocabulary and words that often go together.

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Vocabulary words to talk about the weather in English

Hot/Warm/Cool/Cold

These are all words that are used to describe the temperature.  Hot is only used to describe very, very warm temperatures such as in the middle of summer.  In some parts of the world it is hot all year, however in most places only throughout the summer months.  Warm would usually be used for the Spring and sometimes the Fall. Cool/chilly are usually used for the Fall or when it is only a little cold.  Cold is only for the winter months when it is very cold and you need a heavy coat.

• Wow, it’s so hot outside today, I’ve been sweating non-stop!
• It’s finally warm outside and I can go out with only a t-shirt.
• Tonight will be a little chilly so I’m going to bring an extra jacket.
• Can you believe how cold it’s been lately with all of this snow?

Sunny/Rainy/Cloudy

Sunny is used to describe a clear day with no clouds in the sky. Rainy is when it is dark and cloudy with rain.  Cloudy is simply when there are many, many clouds in the sky without the sun.

• I strongly prefer sunny days to rainy days because there’s nothing better than relaxing at the beach.
• I wish it wasn’t cloudy today… Everyone planned to sun bath at the beach!

Windy/Misty/Foggy

Windy is when there is a lot of wind, usually very strong with the trees blowing all around.  Misty is a bit of a mix between foggy and rainy. If you know the city of San Francisco, this is exactly what misty is.  There is light moisture in the air but not full rain. Foggy is basically when it is cloudy but on the ground.

• It is so windy that it almost blew me over when I tried to walk outside.
• Everyone always thinks San Francisco is warm but really it is often foggy and misty, especially in the evenings.
• Last night it was so foggy when I was driving home that I could barely see in front of me!

Dry and humid usually refer to climates in general but sometimes that can change based on season. In general, the tropical jungles of somewhere like Brazil are very humid, or moist, very wet.  Whereas the climate in California or in Spain and generally very dry, meaning that there is no moisture in the air.

• Wow, it’s so humid today that I started sweating right when I walked outside!
• I prefer dry weather to humid weather because it’s much easier to do my hair.

Stormy/Thunder/Lightning

Stormy describes when the weather is overall very dark, cloudy and rainy. When there is a storm, thunder is the sound that you hear which is actually the sound from the lightning, or the light flashes in the sky.

• I wouldn’t go outside right now, it’s really stormy!
• All of this loud thunder is making my dog very nervous.
• Did you see that intense lightening flash? It really lit up the entire sky.

Well, now you’re ready! Talking about the weather in English is easy! Just take some of the simple conversation starters and talk up a storm(talk a lot) with random people anywhere! You don’t know what to talk about with some new people you just met? Perhaps the weather could be of some assistance. Is it raining cats and dogs(to be raining a lot, non-stop) right now? Let’s see what other ways and phrases to talk about the weather in English that you can think of! Let us know some of your creative ideas!

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Weather report for Elektrostal

During the night and in the morning a few clouds are expected, and some more clouds roll across for this afternoon. The sun will not be visible. There is a high chance of Precipitation near 70%. Temperatures peaking at 12 °C. Overnight into Saturday blows a light breeze (7 to 12 km/h). At daytime a gentle breeze is expected (12 to 20 km/h). Gusts to 34 km/h are possible. Winds blowing at night and in the morning from Southwest and during the afternoon from West. The weather forecast for Elektrostal for Saturday can be accurate in parts but deviations are expected. Check again for latest updates.

Pressure: 1010 hPa

Timezone: MSK (UTC +03:00h)

Meteogram - 5 days - Elektrostal

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Current satellite and rain images for Elektrostal, Russia

The real-time satellite image combines visible light during daytime with infrared radiation during nighttime. At night, the image is not dark as infrared radiation can detect temperature differences. Unfortunately, low clouds and fog are difficult to distinguish from ground temperatures and thus can be almost invisible during the night. Meteosat satellite images for Europe are updated in real-time every 5 minutes. GOES-16/GOES-17 (North & South America) and Himawari (Asia) images update every 10 minutes.

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Radar and precipitation nowcast for Elektrostal

The location marker is placed on Elektrostal. This animation shows the precipitation radar for the selected time range, as well as a 2h forecast . Orange crosses indicate lightning. Data provided by nowcast.de (available in USA, Europe, Australia). Drizzle or light snow fall might be invisible for the radar. Precipitation intensity is colour coded, ranging from turquoise to red.

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MIT-derived algorithm helps forecast the frequency of extreme weather

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To assess a community’s risk of extreme weather, policymakers rely first on global climate models that can be run decades, and even centuries, forward in time, but only at a coarse resolution. These models might be used to gauge, for instance, future climate conditions for the northeastern U.S., but not specifically for Boston.

To estimate Boston’s future risk of extreme weather such as flooding, policymakers can combine a coarse model’s large-scale predictions with a finer-resolution model, tuned to estimate how often Boston is likely to experience damaging floods as the climate warms. But this risk analysis is only as accurate as the predictions from that first, coarser climate model.

“If you get those wrong for large-scale environments, then you miss everything in terms of what extreme events will look like at smaller scales, such as over individual cities,” says Themistoklis Sapsis, the William I. Koch Professor and director of the Center for Ocean Engineering in MIT’s Department of Mechanical Engineering.

Sapsis and his colleagues have now developed a method to “correct” the predictions from coarse climate models. By combining machine learning with dynamical systems theory, the team’s approach “nudges” a climate model’s simulations into more realistic patterns over large scales. When paired with smaller-scale models to predict specific weather events such as tropical cyclones or floods, the team’s approach produced more accurate predictions for how often specific locations will experience those events over the next few decades, compared to predictions made without the correction scheme.

Sapsis says the new correction scheme is general in form and can be applied to any global climate model. Once corrected, the models can help to determine where and how often extreme weather will strike as global temperatures rise over the coming years. 

“Climate change will have an effect on every aspect of human life, and every type of life on the planet, from biodiversity to food security to the economy,” Sapsis says. “If we have capabilities to know accurately how extreme weather will change, especially over specific locations, it can make a lot of difference in terms of preparation and doing the right engineering to come up with solutions. This is the method that can open the way to do that.”

The team’s results appear today in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems . The study’s MIT co-authors include postdoc Benedikt Barthel Sorensen and Alexis-Tzianni Charalampopoulos SM ’19, PhD ’23, with Shixuan Zhang, Bryce Harrop, and Ruby Leung of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington state.

Over the hood

Today’s large-scale climate models simulate weather features such as the average temperature, humidity, and precipitation around the world, on a grid-by-grid basis. Running simulations of these models takes enormous computing power, and in order to simulate how weather features will interact and evolve over periods of decades or longer, models average out features every 100 kilometers or so.

“It’s a very heavy computation requiring supercomputers,” Sapsis notes. “But these models still do not resolve very important processes like clouds or storms, which occur over smaller scales of a kilometer or less.”

To improve the resolution of these coarse climate models, scientists typically have gone under the hood to try and fix a model’s underlying dynamical equations, which describe how phenomena in the atmosphere and oceans should physically interact.

“People have tried to dissect into climate model codes that have been developed over the last 20 to 30 years, which is a nightmare, because you can lose a lot of stability in your simulation,” Sapsis explains. “What we’re doing is a completely different approach, in that we’re not trying to correct the equations but instead correct the model’s output.”

The team’s new approach takes a model’s output, or simulation, and overlays an algorithm that nudges the simulation toward something that more closely represents real-world conditions. The algorithm is based on a machine-learning scheme that takes in data, such as past information for temperature and humidity around the world, and learns associations within the data that represent fundamental dynamics among weather features. The algorithm then uses these learned associations to correct a model’s predictions.

“What we’re doing is trying to correct dynamics, as in how an extreme weather feature, such as the windspeeds during a Hurricane Sandy event, will look like in the coarse model, versus in reality,” Sapsis says. “The method learns dynamics, and dynamics are universal. Having the correct dynamics eventually leads to correct statistics, for example, frequency of rare extreme events.”

Climate correction

As a first test of their new approach, the team used the machine-learning scheme to correct simulations produced by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a climate model run by the U.S. Department of Energy, that simulates climate patterns around the world at a resolution of 110 kilometers. The researchers used eight years of past data for temperature, humidity, and wind speed to train their new algorithm, which learned dynamical associations between the measured weather features and the E3SM model. They then ran the climate model forward in time for about 36 years and applied the trained algorithm to the model’s simulations. They found that the corrected version produced climate patterns that more closely matched real-world observations from the last 36 years, not used for training.

“We’re not talking about huge differences in absolute terms,” Sapsis says. “An extreme event in the uncorrected simulation might be 105 degrees Fahrenheit, versus 115 degrees with our corrections. But for humans experiencing this, that is a big difference.”

When the team then paired the corrected coarse model with a specific, finer-resolution model of tropical cyclones, they found the approach accurately reproduced the frequency of extreme storms in specific locations around the world.

“We now have a coarse model that can get you the right frequency of events, for the present climate. It’s much more improved,” Sapsis says. “Once we correct the dynamics, this is a relevant correction, even when you have a different average global temperature, and it can be used for understanding how forest fires, flooding events, and heat waves will look in a future climate. Our ongoing work is focusing on analyzing future climate scenarios.”

“The results are particularly impressive as the method shows promising results on E3SM, a state-of-the-art climate model,” says Pedram Hassanzadeh, an associate professor who leads the Climate Extremes Theory and Data group at the University of Chicago and was not involved with the study. “It would be interesting to see what climate change projections this framework yields once future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios are incorporated.”

This work was supported, in part, by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

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Spring Outlook: Warmer for most of U.S., wetter in the Southeast

Low flood potential likely, as drought worsens for parts of the plains.

Grassland in Montana. (Image credit: Getty images)

Video: March 21, 2024 - NOAA U.S. Spring Outlook Media Briefing

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — predict above-average temperatures for most of the Continental U.S. and Alaska, as part of NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today for April through June. 

Meanwhile, NOAA’s National Water Center predicts a lower-than-average flood risk across the entire country, due in part to historically low winter snow cover across the Upper Great Plains and western U.S. 

"Climate change is affecting the timing, intensity and duration of weather events in the United States,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “ The Spring Outlook is one of the many tools NOAA provides to help communities prepare for what's ahead."

Spring Outlook for drought, temperature and precipitation

For April through June, above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the U.S. The greatest chance for above-average temperatures is in the Great Lakes region, the Pacific Northwest and Northwest Alaska, though most of the continental U.S. and Alaska have elevated odds of above-average temperatures. 

Precipitation is slightly favored to be above average in portions of the central Plains, the southeastern U.S. and in southern Alaska. Parts of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, meanwhile, are most likely to see precipitation below the seasonal average. 

Moderate to exceptional drought conditions currently exist across less than 20% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico, a marked improvement from last year, as El Nino-fueled rain fell this winter across the Gulf Coast region. Drought conditions are likely to continue improving in the southeastern U.S.; however, the drought is likely to persist or even expand through portions of the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains.  

There is an 83% probability that ENSO Neutral conditions, neither El Nino nor La Nina, will return by the April-May-June 2024 timeframe. However, El Nino is expected to continue impacting weather patterns in the U.S. into the spring. A La Nina Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center remains in effect — meaning La Nina conditions could return to the equatorial Pacific within six months.

“Our scientists at the Climate Prediction Center observed one of the strongest El Nino events on record during the winter of 2023-2024,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “But a quick transition to La Nina — the cool phase of ENSO — is possible as early as the first part of summer.”

Spring flood risk

The overall threat of significant flooding this spring is low due to above-normal temperatures and historically-low snowpack. Moderate flooding is expected in climatologically flood-prone areas of the Midwest and South. The overall lack of snowpack and significant winter precipitation, coupled with the current outlook, suggests that low flow conditions may return to main stem rivers in the Greater Mississippi River Basin later this year.

“This is the first Spring Outlook since 2021 with no population expected to be impacted by major flooding," said Ed Clark, director, NOAA’s National Water Center. “Of growing concern will be the potentially low flows on the Mississippi River this summer into fall due to well-below snowpack and precipitation in most of the Northern Plains and Midwest. This could have potential impacts on those navigation and commercial interests that depend on water from the Mississippi River.”

Approximately 133 million people are at risk for flooding in their communities, with roughly 400,000 at risk for moderate flooding. NOAA’s National Hydrologic Assessment, issued by the National Water Center, evaluates a number of factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil saturation levels, frost depth, streamflow and precipitation.

NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction, which houses the National Water Center, has a number of exciting water initiatives on the way this year. A week from today, the National Water Prediction Service website is scheduled to launch, which will centralize water-related products and services by combining local and regional forecast information with new national level capabilities. The National Water Prediction Service — directed by the Flood Level Observation, Operations, and Decision Support (or FLOODS) Act of 2022 — is envisioned as the gateway to all NWS water information.

Last fall, NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction unveiled its Flood Inundation Mapping services, which provide actionable information to emergency and water managers to prepare for and respond to flood impacts. It provides a real extent of flow-over areas in Geospatial Information System (GIS) format on an hourly basis, as well as a five-day flood inundation forecast. These new flood inundation mapping services — supported by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law — initially launched in Texas and parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, are expanding to cover 30% of the U.S. population by this fall, including much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

About NOAA Outlooks

NOAA’s Spring Outlook highlights weather, drought and flood predictions for the April through June period, helping to build a more weather and climate-ready nation. NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for weather and environmental conditions that are likely during the coming months to minimize impacts on lives and livelihoods.

Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even in areas where the overall risk is considered low. Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecast days in the future, therefore flood risk can change rapidly. Stay current with flood risk in your area with the latest official watches and warnings at weather.gov . For detailed hydrologic conditions and forecasts, go to water.weather.gov . 

Media contact

Erica Grow Cei, nws.pa@noaa.gov , (301) 427-9000

Related Features //

IELTS TOPIC: A Weather You Like

02/25/2021 04:33 PM

Things to consider:

• You can mention a few different weather types at the beginning and then discuss one.
• Most people would talk about sunny, warm weather , but there are other options that we like depending on what we do. A lot of people love snowy weather, but not a snow storm . Many like windy weather but not a hurricane .
• Try to think about many activities you and other people could do in that weather. The topic asks for activities (What you do...?).

Part 2: Sample Answer

Right, so I kind of like all the weather, depending on the situation. For instance, I enjoy mild sunny weather for traveling, having a walk, spending time in a park and so on. I feel quite relaxed and peaceful when it rains , but only if it’s my day off. If I have to go out, I’d hate it for sure. So as you can see , my feelings about the weather are all about the situations I’m in. I will tell you about one type of weather that I enjoy and actually really miss at the moment – snowy winter weather .

A short introduction about my favorite types of weather.

When I talk about snowy weather, of course , I don’t mean a snowstorm or a blizzard . What I mean is a temperature below zero , but not lower than minus five , and everything already covered in a beautiful white blanket of snow . The temperature is important because I really hate it when the snow melts in your feet and everything leaks . Below zero keeps the snow soft and intact .

Explaining exactly the type of weather I will talk about.

I usually see this kind of weather back in my hometown or up in the mountains at some winter ski resort . I’ve been to those ski resorts many times, and although I don’t particularly enjoy skiing , I still do it every time I have the chance. What I love the most is to dress up in my winter suit and explore nature . In the city I’d usually go to the park at night. As everything is white, the park is lighted up and you can’t recognize that it’s night. Up in the mountains, I’d hike in the forest or even try to climb up a hill or a mountain peak . It’s really exciting to do that, although if there is a lot of snow, it’s quite difficult to walk up or down as you might slip a lot. Other than that, I build a snowman (yes I’m grown up, I know), or even just jump in the snow. That’s how much I enjoy it.

Answering where can I see it? What activities I like and dislike to do in it?

The reason I like it is simple – the snow changes the whole outlook of a city or a mountain. It’s like seeing your surroundings in a completely new way. A person can take many funny photos, enjoy many different winter activities and there is simply no way to hate this kind of weather. I really miss it to be honest.

Giving a few reasons why I like or enjoy the weather plus some more activities.

Sentence starters and Linking words

Vocabulary related to the topic, part 3 questions.

In this part we continue to discuss the topic of weather with further questions about seasons, clothes to wear, impact on people and festivals related to weather. Lets take a look.

Examiner: What do people wear in different weather?

Consider seasons.

• We wear different clothes in different seasons - Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter.
• Clothes' types and style are almost the same all around the world for the different seasons. Just name 10 different ones in different time.

Consider weather

• You can mention a few different weather types - sunny, windy, snowy, rainy, and maybe an extreme weather like a snow storm or a pouring rain .
• Again you can mention just a few types of clothing we wear in those times.

Examiner: What are people’s opinions on the weather forecast?

Consider do people believe the forecast.

• You can compare with the past. In the past the weather forecast used to be unreliable. However today its quite accurate.

Consider in your family

• Are there people from your family (parents or grandparents) who do not believe the forecast on the internet or on TV? You can say something about that.

Examiner: How does weather influence people’s life?

Consider different jobs.

• There are many jobs that get impacted from the weather. These are for example farmers , construction workers , drivers , delivery workers , and so on.

Think about personal plans

• We arrange personal plans depending on the weather.
• If we have a beautiful sunny day we might do outdoor sports , hiking, walks along the beach and so on. If not then we usually cancel all plans and stay at home.

Examiner: Are there any festivals about seasons?

Think about local festivals.

• Many countries have small, local festivals related to spring, flowers and nature returning back to normal after winter.

Any international festivals?

• The most common ones to think about would be Thanksgiving which celebrates the harvest , or the Winter and Summer Solstice (longest and shortest day in the year).

Part of the answer is for China as I live here at the moment:

Well, yes of course . Here in China, we have Spring festival and Mid-Autumn festival . These two are sort of at the beginning of those seasons. Of course, sometimes they don’t match exactly , but we know that spring brings a new beginning , same as Spring festival brings the Chinese New Year. If we look abroad , in America they have Thanksgiving which is related to the harvest and collecting the yield from the harvest. At least that’s how it began and now it changed and turned to be a family gathering festival . And then there are the Winter and Summer Solstice festivals , which are a bit forgotten these days , but they represent a celebration of the longest and shortest day in a year.

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Sat, Mar 30

Mostly cloudy and mild; occasional afternoon rain and drizzle Hi: 58°

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Solar eclipse 2024: Latest news on a surprising forecast and where to snag some glasses

Mother Nature might eclipse the eclipse, top meteorologists told USA TODAY Thursday when asked about the weather forecast for the April 8 spectacle , now just 10 days away.

The total eclipse will pass over parts of roughly a dozen states as it traverses from Texas to Maine on the afternoon of April 8. Millions of people are expected to travel  to see it, which will also attract scientists from across the country  to study its unique effects  on the Earth  and its atmosphere .

The  full total solar eclipse experience  will plunge people along a narrow path into darkness midday, but people outside  the path of totality  can still use eclipse glasses (maybe free eclipse glasses ) to see the moon pass in front of the sun.

That is, if clouds don't get in the way.

The forecast from the federal government's Climate Prediction Center for April 8 calls for "widespread cloudiness and precipitation for much of the eastern half of the nation," said meteorologist Anthony Artusa. "This, of course, is not favorable for good viewing conditions near the path of totality on April 8th."

AccuWeather meteorologist John Feerick was also on the pessimistic side, predicting "lots of clouds" from eastern Texas up through the Ohio Valley on April 8.

Both forecasters interviewed admit it's difficult to say for certain about the weather this far ahead. Artusa said that trying to forecast daily weather conditions this far out is "very challenging, and this fact cannot be overstated."

And some eclipse chasers say clouds aren't a deal-breaker. The shadow of the moon will plunge everything in its narrow path of totality into darkness, regardless of whether there's clouds in the sky, and writer and eclipse chaser  Jamie Carter  on  WhenistheNextEclipse.com  advises anyone who has never seen an eclipse to not be intimidated by clouds.

Meanwhile, the early forecasts also have a surprise for people living in the northeast: They show that the farther northeast you go, the better the chances of clear skies might be. That's the opposite of historical trends for cloud cover .

Surprising early cloud forecast for eclipse

"At this early stage, computer model runs depict a developing storm over the Southeast around the time of the eclipse, with extensive cloudiness and precipitation overspreading much of the eastern half of the nation," Artusa said.

Surprisingly, these early forecasts show that the farther northeast you go, the better the chances of clear skies might be. "Northern New York state through interior New England seems to be the best option," Artusa added.

Weather.com's Jonathan Erdman , in an online forecast released Thursday afternoon said "parts of the Northeast may see less cloud cover and precipitation," when compared to the socked-in central U.S.

How do I watch the 2024 solar eclipse, if clouds don't block it?

There are a few ways of watching the eclipse:

• Get the full experience in person : If you're in a narrow band of U.S. land that spans from Texas to Maine, you could see the moon block the sun and its shadow cast a night-like darkness over Earth for a few minutes. You could briefly be able to look up without eye protection and see the moon block the sun.
• Watch from outside the path of totality : Much of the U.S. could get a partial view of the eclipse that isn't nearly as impressive as being in the path of totality. Earth won't be plunged into complete darkness and you'll have to wear protective eyewear to see the moon partially block the sun.
• Watch a livestream : Check back on April 8 for a video feed from the path of totality. It's not the same as being there in person, but hey,  at least you won't have to sit in traffic .

What time is the solar eclipse on April 8?

The eclipse will begin in Texas at 1:27 p.m. CDT and end in Maine at 3:35 p.m. EDT, but the exact time of the eclipse varies by where you are in its path.

You can search by zip code  to find the exact time for your location.

Where will the April eclipse be visible?

All of the lower 48 U.S. states could see the moon at least clip the sun, but that sight is a trifle compared to being in the path of totality.

Because the narrow path includes or is near some of the nation's largest cities, expect millions of people to crowd into a band of land a little over 100 miles wide that spans from the Texas/Mexico border to the Maine/Canada border.

Here are the major cities in each state where you can expect to experience totality (note that the included times do not account for when the partial eclipse begins and ends):

• Dallas, Texas: 1:40-1:44 p.m. CDT
• Idabel, Oklahoma: 1:45-1:49 p.m. CDT
• Little Rock, Arkansas: 1:51-1:54 p.m. CDT
• Poplar Bluff, Missouri: 1:56-2:00 p.m. CDT
• Paducah, Kentucky: 2-2:02 p.m. CDT
• Carbondale, Illinois: 1:59-2:03 p.m. CDT
• Evansville, Indiana: 2:02-2:05 p.m. CDT
• Cleveland, Ohio: 3:13-3:17 p.m. EDT
• Erie, Pennsylvania: 3:16-3:20 p.m. EDT
• Buffalo, New York: 3:18-3:22 p.m. EDT
• Burlington, Vermont: 3:26-3:29 p.m. EDT
• Lancaster, New Hampshire: 3:27-3:30 p.m. EDT
• Caribou, Maine: 3:32-3:34 p.m. EDT

NASA doesn't certify solar eclipse glasses

In the lead-up to the  highly anticipated total solar eclipse , the  online marketplace  had been flooded with manufacturers claiming to be selling protective eyewear approved by NASA.

The seal of approval from one of the world's leading space agencies sounds prestigious, doesn't it?

It should also be a surefire sign for you to avoid that particular product if possible.

Not because the U.S. space agency isn't reputable or knowledgeable when it comes to all things cosmic. But rather because NASA is just not in the business of endorsing any sort of merchandise.

Online marketplaces are flooded with retailers selling solar eclipse glasses they claim have the NASA seal of approval. Consider that a red flag to look elsewhere.

Should I wear eclipse glasses while driving?

No! Eclipse glasses are far darker than regular sunglasses, and they block the sun's intense infrared and ultraviolet lights from harming human eyes. And because they block out almost all visible light, you should not wear them while driving.

"Anyone operating a vehicle should not be attempting to look up at the sky during the eclipse – their eyes should be on the road," said Aixa Diaz, a spokeswoman from AAA. "Eclipse glasses are for eclipse viewing, not driving. They shouldn’t be treated like normal sunglasses."

Will clouds really ruin the eclipse?

Clouds are just part of weather, and as noted in the latest forecast above, it's likely that some of the millions of people  in the path of totality for April's total eclipse  will have to  endure overcast skies that will impact the experience .

But determining how clouds would change your view depends on the types of clouds – and which expert you ask. Some advise eclipse watchers to not worry about the skies, others say an overcast sky can ruin the experience.

Before last year's annular solar eclipse, National Weather Service meteorologist Tim Daldrup told  Oregon Public Radio  that if clouds are in the forecast, you should hope for the "right kind of clouds."

“If we wanna see it, we’ll want the higher-level clouds,” Daldrup told OPR. “Those tend to be the more feathery cirrus clouds that can still be seen through. They might obstruct the eclipse but you can still see it.”

Cirrus clouds would be in contrast to some of the more eclipse-unfriendly clouds, such as a thick deck of lower-level stratus or cumulus clouds that would likely completely block the sun.

Canada's Niagara region declares state of emergency ahead of eclipse

(Reuters) - Canada's Niagara region has proactively declared a state of emergency ahead of the rare total solar eclipse on April 8 that is expected to gather massive crowds to areas in and around the region's popular waterfalls.

The Niagara region said in a statement on Thursday that Regional Chair Jim Bradley had declared a state of emergency "out of an abundance of caution."

"Declaring a state of emergency ... strengthens the tools the region has at its disposal to safeguard the health and safety of residents and visitors and protect our critical infrastructure in any scenario that might arise," a Niagara region press release said.

The dramatic waterfall, situated along the Canadian-U.S. border, is in the path of the eclipse, and many people are splurging on hotels and rentals in advance to experience the phenomenon at one of North America's natural wonders.

The mayor of Ontario city of Niagara Falls Jim Diodati predicted "by far the biggest crowd that we've ever had" on the Canadian side for the eclipse. Diodati estimated that up to a million people will be there, compared with the 14 million who typically visit during the course of an entire year.

Bad traffic and deadly traffic accidents

Traffic is predicted to be bad and potentially deadly —  especially after the eclipse ends . Millions of people will crowd into the narrow path of totality, then most will attempt to leave all at once as soon as the eclipse is over.

Experts warn the excitement could create dangerous and busy automobile traffic conditions as people pack into the small part of the country with the best view.

Roads could be especially packed at the  center of the eclipse's path  as Americans who  want the best view  crowd into cities, towns and remote areas, many without the infrastructure to handle big crowds.

Even worse than traffic, a recent study reported that the 2017 solar eclipse "was associated with increased risks of a fatal traffic crash" – potentially as much as a 31% increase, the  study said .

How will Austin's famous bats react during Texas' total solar eclipse?

Disaster declarations are declared, hotels are booked up, and Austinites are picking up pairs of glasses for April 8's total solar eclipse. But one cohort doesn't care about the eclipse at all. In fact, they'll probably sleep through the whole ordeal.

Bats in Central Texas will be asleep during the eclipse, which is when the moon passes in front of the sun causing complete darkness. The eclipse is expected to pass over Austin around 1:35 p.m. and last for roughly 2 minutes on the edge of town. Daytime is when bats are sleeping after a night of looking for food, said Fran Hutchins, director of Bracken Cave Reserve.

"There's a really good chance that nothing's going to happen because they're going to be in a dark cave and not notice," Hutchins said.

"(The bats) may not really even notice that it's getting dark outside," he said. "They're probably just going to sleep through the whole thing."

Iowa's Severe Weather Awareness Week 2024 - Flooding

W ith the final day of severe weather awareness week here, we've covered a range of topics like lightning, hail, wind, and tornado safety, and how to best be prepared. Our last big topic this week is, unfortunately, the leading cause of death in the U.S. for severe weather-related fatalities, and that is flooding.

One of the best ways to keep you and your family safe is to be informed. You can find all sorts of flood-related information right from the National Weather Service , or the National Water Prediction Service . 

The latest spring flood outlook does have a well-below-normal risk for flooding along our waterways. The biggest flooding threat this season is any large springtime snow accumulations or heavy and prolonged rainfall events.

That being said, it's good to know the difference between flood warnings and flash flood warnings. Flood warnings will be issued as rivers rise into their flood stages. Where you'll want to heed any evacuation orders as they come.

Whereas flash flood warnings are issued when heavy rainfall occurs leading to rapidly rising water levels.

Regardless of the warning, first and foremost turn around, don't drown. It does not take much for water to become life-threatening. 6 inches of moving water can be enough to move you and upwards of 12 to 18 inches of moving water can be enough to sweep away vehicles.

With fast-moving flood waters, it's always difficult to gauge just how deep that water is. And lastly, the safest place to be during a flooding event is indoors and away from the lowest part of your home, if that isn't available always seek shelter at higher ground.

Overall, stay safe during this severe weather season and your Weather First team will always be a great source for you to stay informed this season!

What to expect from Wednesday’s storms and Easter weekend weather in Tampa Bay

• Michaela Mulligan Times staff

The muggy air blanketing the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday is a signal that storms are expected to arrive later in the day.

A cold front will usher in temperate spring weather ahead of the holiday weekend but also will bring a risk of dangerous storms to the area. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center placed much of the northern areas of the state under a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday, including north Pinellas County and Pasco County.

The Nature Coast was taking the brunt of the weather on Wednesday morning., according to Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Tampa Bay office. However, the weather service had not received any reports of severe weather, like strong winds or hail.

Wynn said rain could push into the Tampa Bay area around 5 p.m. as commuters trek home. The weather service expects storms will peter out by sundown but start again in the early hours on Thursday.

⛈️Thunderstorm Timing ⛈️ It's been an active morning across the Nature Coast, but what about everywhere else? Here's a look at what we are expecting right now 👇 Important note: more storms are possible late tonight through tomorrow morning, but are less concerning 🌧️⛈️🌧️ #flwx pic.twitter.com/6Ra6icoC2A — NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) March 27, 2024

The storms could bring up to 2 inches of rain across the area, Wynn said. While the risk of severe weather is higher to the north, it is possible the Tampa Bay area could see pockets of higher gusts and thunderstorms.

After the storms pass, the Easter weekend is going to be beautiful, Wynn said. High temperatures will be near normal at about 80 degrees. Easter Sunday will by sunny and rain free for egg hunts.

Michaela Mulligan a climate and environment reporter. Reach her at [email protected].

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