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Chickadees use memory ‘bar codes’ to find their hidden food stashes

Unique subsets of neurons in a chickadee’s memory center light up for each distinct cache, hinting at how episodic memories are encoded in the brain.

Here’s how magnetic fields shape desert ants’ brains

How patient-led research could speed up medical innovation

Earth’s oldest known earthquake was probably triggered by plate tectonics

Climate change is changing how we keep time

A new image reveals magnetic fields around our galaxy’s central black hole

A teeny device can measure subtle shifts in Earth’s gravitational field

Trending stories.

Why the 2024 total solar eclipse will be such a big deal

Electrons are extremely round, a new measurement confirms

Space station detectors found the source of weird ‘blue jet’ lightning

A new look at Ötzi the Iceman’s DNA reveals new ancestry and other surprises

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Spotlight on Health

The teen brain is especially susceptible to the harms of THC

Marijuana that’s higher in THC and concentrated cannabis products may pose even higher risks of addiction and psychosis.

Here’s why COVID-19 isn’t seasonal so far

Is aging without illness possible, from the archives.

How to Stop a Biological Clock

March 9, 1974 Vol. 105 No. #10

Science News Magazine

March 9, 2024 Vol. 205 No. 5

Here’s why blueberries are blue

Here’s how scientists reached nuclear fusion ‘ignition’ for the first time.

Featured Media

How brain implants are treating depression

This six-part series follows people whose lives have been changed by an experimental treatment called deep brain stimulation.

Explore the expected life spans of different dog breeds

Does this drone image show a newborn white shark? Experts aren’t sure

Parrots can move along thin branches using ‘beakiation’

How ghostly neutrinos could explain the universe’s matter mystery, follow science news.

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This is the first egg-laying amphibian found to feed its babies ‘milk’

Insects flocking to artificial lights may not know which way is up, some honeybees in italy regularly steal pollen off the backs of bumblebees.

Human embryo replicas have gotten more complex. Here’s what you need to know

Lauren schroeder looks beyond natural selection to rethink human evolution, oldest traces of a dysentery-causing parasite were found in ancient toilets.

Waterlogged soils can give hurricanes new life after they arrive on land

Cold, dry snaps accompanied three plagues that struck the roman empire, numbats are built to hold heat, making climate change extra risky for the marsupials.

JWST spies hints of a neutron star left behind by supernova 1987A

Astronomers are puzzled over an enigmatic companion to a pulsar, a bar of stars at the center of the milky way looks surprisingly young.

50 years ago, superconductors were warming up

‘countdown’ takes stock of the u.s. nuclear weapons stockpile, physicist sekazi mtingwa considers himself an apostle of science, health & medicine.

Here’s what distorted faces can look like to people with prosopometamorphopsia

Long covid brain fog may be due to damaged blood vessels in the brain, don’t use unsterilized tap water to rinse your sinuses. it may carry brain-eating amoebas.

Where are U.S. earthquakes most likely? A new map shows the hazard risks

Many but not all of the world’s aquifers are losing water, steve and other aurora-like glows perplex scientists with their complex physics, science & society.

Not all cultures value happiness over other aspects of well-being

Social media harms teens’ mental health, mounting evidence shows. what now, geneticist krystal tsosie advocates for indigenous data sovereignty.

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Science News

Skeleton panda sea squirt: The weird little creature that looks like baby panda dressed up for Halloween

By Melissa Hobson published 30 March 24

Scientists discovered this little panda skeleton that lives off the coast of a Japanese island was a new species after scuba divers posted photos of it online.

Where does the solar system end?

By Harry Baker published 30 March 24

The location of the solar system's outer boundary is a point of contention among astronomers. There are three possible candidates, which "all have merit." But which one is best?

Powerful X-class solar flare slams Earth, triggering radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean

By Jennifer Nalewicki published 29 March 24

On March 28, Earth was hit by an X-class solar flare that was strong enough to ionize part of the planet's atmosphere.

'Novel' swine flu virus sickens Pennsylvania child in 1st case of the year

By Nicoletta Lanese published 29 March 24

The CDC has reported the first human case of swine flu in the U.S. in 2024. There's no evidence of the infection spreading between people.

Tardigrade proteins could slow aging in humans, small cell study finds

In lab-dishes studies, proteins drawn from tiny tardigrades slowed human cell metabolism.

US has already had more measles cases in 2024 than all of 2023

CDC data shows that more than 60 measles cases have been reported so far in 2024, surpassing last year's total.

Secretive Delta IV Heavy rocket launch postponed indefinitely

By Sascha Pare last updated 29 March 24

The final liftoff of a United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy rocket was postponed indefinitely following a last-minute nitrogen issue.

Inside the 20-year quest to unravel the bizarre realm of 'quantum superchemistry'

By Sam Lemonick published 29 March 24

More than two decades ago, scientists predicted that at ultra-low temperatures, many atoms could undergo 'quantum superchemistry' and chemically react as one. They've finally shown it's real.

How do lasers work?

By Joanna Thompson published 29 March 24

First predicted by Einstein more than a century ago, lasers have shaped our modern technological landscape. But how do they work?

Scientists made the coldest large molecule on record — and it has a super strange chemical bond

By Victoria Atkinson published 29 March 24

A four-atom molecule has broken the record for coldest large molecule.

Defying the odds, Japan's SLIM lander survives 2nd night on the moon

By Mike Wall published 29 March 24

Japan's SLIM lunar lander has survived another night on the moon, despite being designed to die after the first lunar night.

Fiber-optic data transfer speeds hit a rapid 301 Tbps — 1.2 million times faster than your home broadband connection

By Keumars Afifi-Sabet published 29 March 24

The researchers hit a rate of 301 terabits per second — equivalent to transferring 1,800 4K movies over the internet in one second — using existing fiber-optic cables.

Cicada double brood event: What to expect when trillions of bugs emerge in Eastern US

By Carys Matthews published 29 March 24

When and where will the double cicada brood emerge? Here's what to expect from this rare phenomenon, which occurs only once every 221 years.

4 ways you can help NASA study the April 8 solar eclipse

By Jamie Carter published 29 March 24

From observing how the sun works to how animals react to darkness in the daytime, here are 4 simple, NASA-funded science projects you can contribute to during the April 8 total solar eclipse.

Rare meningitis and bloodstream infections on the rise in the US, CDC warns

By Nicoletta Lanese published 28 March 24

The CDC issued a health alert about an uptick in invasive meningococcal disease in 2023 that appears to be continuing into 2024.

Fortified 14th-century castle and moat discovered under hotel in France

By Kristina Killgrove published 28 March 24

Archaeologists found a 600-year-old castle with a moat in Brittany, France.

1,500-year-old DNA used to reveal likeness of Chinese Emperor Wu

By Jennifer Nalewicki published 28 March 24

Scientists used DNA to create a facial reconstruction of a Chinese emperor who ruled 1,500 years ago.

Uptick in tuberculosis raises alarm in California

California health officials warn that the number of active tuberculosis cases in the state rose last year.

What happens if it's cloudy for the April 8 solar eclipse?

By Joe Rao published 28 March 24

Though everyone is hoping for clear skies, here's what might happen if an eclipse-chaser's worst enemy — clouds — decides to make an appearance.

Orca calf refuses to leave a lagoon where its mother stranded and died off Vancouver Island

By Sascha Pare published 28 March 24

Rescuers have been trying to coax a 2-year-old orca from a lagoon off Vancouver Island and back to the ocean for five days, but they only have a 30-minute window every day when waters are high.

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• 2 'You could almost see and smell their world': Remnants of 'Britain's Pompeii' reveal details of life in Bronze Age village
• 3 Hair-straightening cream tied to woman's repeated kidney damage
• 4 Future quantum computers will be no match for 'space encryption' that uses light to beam data around — with the 1st satellite launching in 2025
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• 2 The 7 most powerful supercomputers in the world right now
• 3 Fiber-optic data transfer speeds hit a rapid 301 Tbps — 1.2 million times faster than your home broadband connection
• 4 Powerful X-class solar flare slams Earth, triggering radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean
• 5 Polar vortex is 'spinning backwards' above Arctic after major reversal event

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This week in science: whale menopause, bird rest stops and a speech-generating patch

Margaret Cirino

Emily Kwong

NPR's Ari Shapiro talks with Emily Kwong and Margaret Cirino about whale menopause, songbird rest stops along migratory routes, and a device that allows people with voice disorders to speak.

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

It's time for our regular science news roundup with our friends at NPR's Short Wave podcast, Emily Kwong and Margaret Cirino. Hi, there.

EMILY KWONG AND MARGARET CIRINO: Hey, Ari.

SHAPIRO: OK. So how this works is you bring us three science stories that have caught your eye this week.

EMILY KWONG, BYLINE: Yep.

SHAPIRO: What have you got for us today?

KWONG: Well, we have an innovative patch to help people with vocal disorders speak.

MARGARET CIRINO, BYLINE: And we've got new research on menopause in whales.

KWONG: And songbird migration and their secret rest stops.

SHAPIRO: Emily, let's start with this patch that might help people with voice disorders speak?

KWONG: Yeah. So a little backstory - the person who actually inspired me to become a journalist was this fantastic newspaper reporter up in Maine. His name was Doug Harlow, and he used a special device to speak. I interviewed him about it 10 years ago.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

DOUG HARLOW: (Through electrolarynx) Good afternoon. Doug Harlow calling.

KWONG: The reason is because, when Doug was in his mid 50s, Ari, doctors found throat cancer. So he had his vocal cords removed to save his life. And in their place, he was given a hand-held, battery powered device called an electrolarynx.

HARLOW: (Through electrolarynx) I remember it being, like, a - more an advantage.

SHAPIRO: Wow.

KWONG: The device basically vibrates, and Doug would hold it up against his throat. And with time, he learned how to turn those vibrations into the sound of words like you just heard. But now, a team at UCLA has figured out a new way to help people with voice disorders speak, no hands required.

SHAPIRO: Huh.

CIRINO: Yeah. This is a type of patch that sticks directly to the skin on the throat. They published their research in the journal Nature Communications last week.

SHAPIRO: So this patch sticks onto the throat. And how does it work?

CIRINO: So the patch is about 1 square inch. It's made of this soft, stretchy material. Ari, I'm going to ask you to put your hand to your throat as you speak - and just say a few words for me.

SHAPIRO: OK. My hand is on my throat like a hand scarf.

KWONG: (Singing) La, la, la, la.

SHAPIRO: Yeah, I'm feeling vibrations here.

KWONG: Yeah. So that muscle movement that you feel - the patch can turn it into an electrical signal, which is then converted into audible speech that anyone can hear - sounds a little like this.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Through voice-changer patch) Merry Christmas.

SHAPIRO: Wow. The difference between the earlier version of the voice device and that is night and day.

CIRINO: Yeah.

SHAPIRO: Well, everybody has a different voice. Is this patch able to kind of decode all the different range of voices that there are in an accurate way?

CIRINO: Yeah. So the researchers developed a machine learning algorithm to correlate the electrical signal to certain words. And the machine learns over time since everyone's voice is different.

KWONG: Yeah. The device's inventor, Jun Chen, said his team has measured an accuracy rate of about 95%.

SHAPIRO: Is this device going to be commercially available anytime soon?

KWONG: So Jun's team has to do a lot more tests to increase the vocabulary and translation accuracy of the patch. But if that pans out, he hopes something like this can be commercially available in three to five years.

SHAPIRO: Wild.

OK, next, Marge, can we go to your story about menopause in whales?

CIRINO: Yes, we can. But first, did you know most animals don't go through menopause? Humans are kind of special that way.

SHAPIRO: Not to brag, but I did know that.

CIRINO: Well, I didn't. And so I had Sam Ellis, an animal behavior researcher involved in the study, explain why it's so rare.

SAM ELLIS: The best way to propagate your genes is to get as many offspring as possible into the next generation. The best way to do that is almost always going to be to reproduce for your whole life. So I think, really, it's not a surprise that it's so rare because it's such a strange strategy.

KWONG: Sam is at the University of Exeter in the U.K., and he studies menopause in one of the only types of mammals that experience it other than humans, and that is toothed whales, like killer whales.

SHAPIRO: So why would these toothed whales experience menopause and not like - I don't know - baleen whales?

CIRINO: Researchers aren't sure why exactly, but they do know menopause has evolved several times in whales, so they think it must have some benefit.

KWONG: OK. This is the study. It was in the journal Nature. Sam and his team compared the five known species of toothed whales that go through menopause to the ones that don't. And they found that the female whales undergoing menopause lived, on average, 40 years longer than females of other species.

KWONG: And on top of that, they also lived longer than the males of their own species.

SHAPIRO: And could they say why menopause appears to have this link with longevity?

CIRINO: Well, Sam told me this has to do with something called reproductive competition. Like, if a mother and her daughter are both reproducing - you know, still living in the same group at the same time, they're gunning for the same resources, like food. Menopause fixes that. Instead of grandmother whales competing with their daughters for resources, this allows older female toothed whales to provide intergenerational help.

KWONG: Yeah. These grandma whales - they can share food with relatives, share their knowledge of the ecosystem and even babysit their grand-offspring.

KWONG: Older whales have been documented babysitting their grand-calves.

SHAPIRO: I don't want to anthropomorphize whales, but does this study tell us anything about why menopause may have evolved in humans?

KWONG: That's a good question, yeah.

CIRINO: Yeah. I mean, we can't say for sure that this is why menopause evolved in humans, but Sam says that's likely the case. And either way, this research reveals some of the social utility of going through menopause and being a grandma.

SHAPIRO: We all love grandmas.

KWONG: Shout-out to the grandmas.

SHAPIRO: OK, third science story for today is about the secret places songbirds rest during their migration. What a seasonally appropriate choice.

KWONG: Indeed. Yes, happy spring to you, Ari - to everyone. The spring bird migration is underway. That means billions of birds will be migrating north to and through the U.S.

CIRINO: And some of these birds are traveling thousands of miles to breeding grounds in search of food. So scientists generally know where birds are traveling to and from, but what's been less clear is where they stop to rest and recuperate along the way.

SHAPIRO: Secret bird rest stops.

CIRINO: Exactly.

KWONG: Not knowing the rest stops is a problem. It's been kind of the missing link for people who want to protect migrating birds. And bird populations in North America have been plummeting in recent years. Ornithologists estimate roughly 3 billion birds, which is nearly 30% of their population, have been lost in the last 50 years.

SHAPIRO: Oh, so if you want to protect these bird populations, knowing where they rest can help you protect those spaces and protect the populations.

CIRINO: That's right. So a recent study published in Current Biology has finally given us an idea of where this happens along the eastern U.S. by using weather radar. Our colleague, Nathan Rott, talked to the lead researcher on the paper, a Princeton Ph.D. student, Fengyi Guo.

FENGYI GUO: The cool thing about this is that most of them are nocturnal migrants, meaning that they migrate at night, and they usually take off in a very synchronized way near sunset, which can be well captured by weather radars.

CIRINO: So birds show up differently on weather radar than rain, for example. And it's those distinctions that help them map out where the birds are resting.

SHAPIRO: I'm dying to know - what were these secret places that the scientists uncovered?

KWONG: So for spring migration, the researchers identified hotspots throughout the Midwest and the East. They're mainly in deciduous forest fragments - so, like, blocks of forest. And when you add up both spring and fall hotspots, the researchers found that only one-third of those spots are in protected areas, like a state forest or national park.

CIRINO: Fengyi says part of the reason for that is that a lot of this land is privately owned, so she hopes this kind of data can create opportunities to partner up with private landowners on bird conservation efforts.

SHAPIRO: Fascinating.

SHAPIRO: That is Emily Kwong and Margaret Cirino from NPR's science podcast, Short Wave, where you can learn about new discoveries, everyday mysteries and the science behind the headlines. Good to have you both with us. Thanks again.

CIRINO: Thanks, Ari.

KWONG: Always a pleasure.

(SOUNDBITE OF SLVR SONG, "BACK N FORTH")

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• Published: 21 March 2024

Expert review of the science underlying nature-based climate solutions

• B. Buma   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2402-7737 1 , 2   na1 ,
• D. R. Gordon   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-6398-2345 1 , 3   na1 ,
• K. M. Kleisner 1 ,
• A. Bartuska 1 , 4 ,
• A. Bidlack 5 ,
• R. DeFries   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3332-4621 6 ,
• P. Ellis   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7933-8298 7 ,
• P. Friedlingstein   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3309-4739 8 , 9 ,
• S. Metzger 10   nAff15   nAff16 ,
• G. Morgan 11 ,
• K. Novick   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8431-0879 12 ,
• J. N. Sanchirico 13 ,
• J. R. Collins   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5705-9682 1 , 14 ,
• A. J. Eagle   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0841-2379 1 ,
• R. Fujita 1 ,
• E. Holst 1 ,
• J. M. Lavallee   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3028-7087 1 ,
• R. N. Lubowski 1   nAff17 ,
• C. Melikov 1   nAff18 ,
• L. A. Moore   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0239-6080 1   nAff19 ,
• E. E. Oldfield   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6181-1267 1 ,
• J. Paltseva 1   nAff20 ,
• A. M. Raffeld   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5036-6460 1 ,
• N. A. Randazzo 1   nAff21   nAff22 ,
• C. Schneider 1 ,
• N. Uludere Aragon 1   nAff23 &
• S. P. Hamburg 1  

Nature Climate Change ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Climate-change ecology
• Climate-change mitigation
• Environmental impact

Viable nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) are needed to achieve climate goals expressed in international agreements like the Paris Accord. Many NbCS pathways have strong scientific foundations and can deliver meaningful climate benefits but effective mitigation is undermined by pathways with less scientific certainty. Here we couple an extensive literature review with an expert elicitation on 43 pathways and find that at present the most used pathways, such as tropical forest conservation, have a solid scientific basis for mitigation. However, the experts suggested that some pathways, many with carbon credit eligibility and market activity, remain uncertain in terms of their climate mitigation efficacy. Sources of uncertainty include incomplete GHG measurement and accounting. We recommend focusing on resolving those uncertainties before broadly scaling implementation of those pathways in quantitative emission or sequestration mitigation plans. If appropriate, those pathways should be supported for their cobenefits, such as biodiversity and food security.

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Nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) are conservation, restoration and improved management strategies (pathways) in natural and working ecosystems with the primary motivation to mitigate GHG emissions and remove CO 2 from the atmosphere 1 (similar to ecosystem-based mitigation 2 ). GHG mitigation through ecosystem stewardship is integral to meeting global climate goals, with the greatest benefit coming from near-term maximization of emission reductions, followed by CO 2 removal 3 . Many countries (for example, Indonesia, China and Colombia) use NbCS to demonstrate progress toward national climate commitments.

The scope of NbCS is narrower than that of nature-based solutions (NbS) which include interventions that prioritize non-climate benefits alongside climate (for example, biodiversity, food provisioning and water quality improvement) 4 . In many cases, GHG mitigation is considered a cobenefit that results from NbS actions focused on these other challenges 2 . In contrast, NbCS are broader than natural climate solutions, which are primarily focused on climate mitigation through conservation, restoration and improved land management, generally not moving ecosystems beyond their unmodified structure, function or composition 5 . NbCS may involve moving systems beyond their original function, for example by cultivating macroalgae in water deeper than their natural habitat.

The promise of NbCS has generated a proliferation of interest in using them in GHG mitigation plans 6 , 7 ; 104 of the 168 signatories to the Paris Accord included nature-based actions as part of their mitigation plans 8 . Success in long-term GHG management requires an accurate accounting of inputs and outputs to the atmosphere at scale, so NbCS credits must have robust, comprehensive and transparent scientific underpinnings 9 . Given the urgency of the climate problem, our goal is to identify NbCS pathways with a sufficient scientific foundation to provide broad confidence in their potential GHG mitigation impact, provide resources for confident implementation and identify priority research areas in more uncertain pathways. Evaluating implementation of mitigation projects is beyond our scope; this effort focuses on understanding the underlying science. The purpose is not evaluating any specific carbon crediting protocol or implementation framework but rather the current state of scientific understanding necessary to provide confidence in any NbCS.

In service of this goal, we first investigated nine biomes (boreal forests, coastal marine (salt marsh, mangrove, seagrass and coral reef), freshwater wetlands, grasslands, open ocean (large marine animal and mesopelagic zone biomass, seabed), peatlands, shrublands, temperate forests and tropical forests) and three cultivation types (agroforestry, croplands and macroalgae aquaculture); these were chosen because of their identified potential scale of global impact. In this context, impact is assessed as net GHG mitigation: the CO 2 sequestered or emissions reduced, for example, discounted by understood simultaneous emissions of other GHG (as when N 2 O is released simultaneously with carbon sequestration in cropland soils). From there, we identified 43 NbCS pathways which have been formally implemented (with or without market action) or informally proposed. We estimated the scale of mitigation impact for each pathway on the basis of this literature and, as a proxy measure of NbCS implementation, determined eligibility and activity under existing carbon crediting protocols. Eligibility means that the pathway is addressed by an existing GHG mitigation protocol; market activity means that credits are actively being bought under those eligibility requirements. We considered pathways across a spectrum from protection to improved management to restoration to manipulated systems, but some boundaries were necessary. We excluded primarily abiotically driven pathways (for example, ocean alkalinity enhancement) or where major land use or land-use trade-offs exist (for example, afforestation) 10 , 11 , 12 . Of the 43 pathways, 79% are at present eligible for carbon crediting (sometimes under several methodologies) and at least 65% of those have been implemented (Supplementary Table 1 ). This review was then appraised by 30 independent scholars (at least three per pathway; a complete review synthesis is given in the Supplementary Data ).

Consolidation of a broad body of scientific knowledge, with inherent variance, requires expert judgement. We used an expert elicitation process 13 , 14 , 15 with ten experts to place each proposed NbCS pathway into one of three readiness categories following their own assessment of the scientific literature, categorized by general sources of potential uncertainty: category 1, sufficient scientific basis to support a high-quality carbon accounting system or to support the development of such a system today; category 2, a >25% chance that focused research and reasonable funding would support development of high-quality carbon accounting (that is, move to category 1) within 5 years; or category 3, a <25% chance of development of high-quality carbon accounting within 5 years (for example, due to measurement challenges, unconstrained leakage, external factors which constrain viability).

If an expert ranked a pathway as category 2, they were also asked to rank general research needs to resolve: leakage/displacement (spillover to other areas), measuring, reporting and verification (the ability to quantify all salient stocks and fluxes), basic mechanisms of action (fundamental science), durability (ability to predict or compensate for uncertainty in timescale of effectiveness due to disturbances, climate change, human activity or other factors), geographic uncertainty (place-to-place variation), scaling potential (ability to estimate impact) and setting of a baseline (ability to estimate additionality over non-action; a counterfactual). To avoid biasing towards a particular a priori framework for evaluation of the scientific literature, reviewers could use their own framework for evaluating the NbCS literature about potential climate impact and so could choose to ignore or add relevant categorizations as well. Any pathway in category 1 would not need fundamental research for implementation; research gaps were considered too extensive for useful guidance on reducing uncertainty in category 3 pathways. Estimates of the global scale of likely potential impact (PgCO 2 e yr −1 ) and cobenefits were also collected from expert elicitors. See Methods and Supplementary Information for the survey instrument.

Four pathways with the highest current carbon market activity and high mitigation potential (tropical and temperate forest conservation and reforestation; Table 1 and Supplementary Data ), were consistently rated as high-confidence pathways in the expert elicitation survey. Other NbCS pathways, especially in the forestry sector, were rated relatively strongly by the experts for both confidence in scientific basis and scale of potential impact, with some spread across the experts (upper right quadrant, Fig. 1 ). Conversely, 13 pathways were consistently marked by experts as currently highly uncertain/low confidence (median score across experts: 2.5–3.0) and placed in category 3 (for example, cropland microbial amendments and coral reef restoration; Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 ). For the full review, including crediting protocols currently used, literature estimates of scale and details of sub-pathways, see Supplementary Data .

Pathways in the upper right quadrant have both high confidence in the scientific foundations and the largest potential scale of global impact; pathways in the lower left have the lowest confidence in our present scientific body of knowledge and an estimated smaller potential scale of impact. Designations of carbon credit eligibility under existing protocols and market activity at the present time are noted. Grassland enhanced mineral weathering (EMW) is not shown (mean category rating 2.9) as no scale of impact was estimated. See Supplementary Table 1 for specific pathway data. Bars represent 20th to 80th percentiles of individual estimates, if there was variability in estimates. A small amount of random noise was added to avoid overlap.

The experts assessed 26 pathways as having average confidence scores between 1.5 and 2.4, suggesting the potential for near-term resolution of uncertainties. This categorization arose from either consensus amongst experts on the uncertain potential (for example, boreal forest reforestation consistently rated category 2, with primary concerns about durability) or because experts disagreed, with some ranking category 1 and others category 3 (for example, pasture management). We note that where expert disagreement exists (seen as the spread of responses in Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1 ; also see Data availability for link to original data), this suggests caution against overconfidence in statements about these pathways. These results also suggest that confidence may be increased by targeted research on the identified sources of uncertainty (Supplementary Table 3 ).

Sources of uncertainty

Durability and baseline-setting were rated as high sources of uncertainty across all pathways ranked as category 2 by the experts (mean ratings of 3.6 and 3.4 out of 5, respectively; Supplementary Table 3 ). Understanding of mechanisms and geographic spread had the lowest uncertainty ratings (2.1 and 2.3, respectively), showing confidence in the basic science. Different subsets of pathways had different prioritizations, however, suggesting different research needs: forest-centric pathways were most uncertain in their durability and additionality (3.8 and 3.4, respectively), suggesting concerns about long-term climate and disturbance trajectories. Agricultural and grassland systems, however, had higher uncertainty in measurement methods and additionality (3.9 and 3.5 respectively). Although there were concerns about durability from some experts (for example, due to sea-level rise), some coastal blue carbon pathways such as mangrove restoration (mean category ranking: 1.7 (20th to 80th percentile 1.0–2.0)) have higher confidence than others (for example, seagrass restoration: mean category ranking 2.8, 20th to 80th percentile 2.6–3.0)), which are relatively poorly constrained in terms of net radiative forcing potential despite a potentially large carbon impact (seagrass median: 1.60 PgCO 2 e yr −1 ; see Supplementary Data for more scientific literature estimates).

Scale of impact

For those pathways with lower categorization by the expert elicitation (category 2 or 3) at the present time, scale of global impact is a potential heuristic for prioritizing further research. High variability, often two orders of magnitude, was evident in the mean estimated potential PgCO 2 e yr −1 impacts for the different pathways (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 2 ) and the review of the literature found even larger ranges produced by individual studies (Supplementary Data ). A probable cause of this wide range was different constraints on the estimated potential, with some studies focusing on potential maximum impact and others on more constrained realizable impacts. Only avoided loss of tropical forest and cropland biochar amendment were consistently estimated as having the likely potential to mitigate >2 PgCO 2 e yr −1 , although biochar was considered more uncertain by experts due to other factors germane to its overall viability as a climate solution, averaging a categorization of 2.2. The next four highest potential impact pathways, ranging from 1.6 to 1.7 PgCO 2 e yr −1 , spanned the spectrum from high readiness (temperate forest restoration) to moderate (cropland conversion from annual to perennial vegetation and grassland restoration) to low (seagrass restoration, with main uncertainties around scale of potential impact and durability).

There was high variability in the elicitors’ estimated potential scale of impact, even in pathways with strong support, such as tropical forest avoided loss (20th to 80th percentile confidence interval: 1–8 PgCO 2 e yr −1 ), again emphasizing the importance of consistent definitions and constraints on how NbCS are measured, evaluated and then used in broad-scale climate change mitigation planning and budgeting. Generally, as pathway readiness decreased (moving from category 1 to 3), the elicitor-estimated estimates of GHG mitigation potential decreased (Supplementary Fig. 1 ). Note that individual studies from the scientific literature may have higher or lower estimates (Supplementary Data ).

Expert elicitation meta-analyses suggest that 6–12 responses are sufficient for a robust and stable quantification of responses 15 . We tested that assumption via a Monte Carlo-based sensitivity assessment. Readiness categorizations by the ten experts were robust to a Monte Carlo simulation test, where further samples were randomly drawn from the observed distribution of responses: mean difference between the original and the boot-strapped data was 0.02 (s.d. = 0.05) with an absolute difference average of 0.06 (s.d. = 0.06). The maximum difference in readiness categorization means across all pathways was 0.20 (s.d. = 0.20) (Supplementary Table 2 ). The full dataset of responses is available online (see ʻData availabilityʼ).

These results highlight opportunities to accelerate implementation of NbCS in well-supported pathways and identify critical research needs in others (Fig. 1 ). We suggest focusing future efforts on resolving identified uncertainties for pathways at the intersection between moderate average readiness (for example, mean categorizations between ~1.5 and 2.0) and high potential impact (for example, median >0.5 PgCO 2 e yr −1 ; Supplementary Table 1 ): agroforestry, improved tropical and temperate forest management, tropical and boreal peatlands avoided loss and peatland restoration. Many, although not all, experts identified durability and baseline/additionality as key concerns to resolve in those systems; research explicitly targeted at those specific uncertainties (Supplementary Table 3 ) could rapidly improve confidence in those pathways.

We recommend a secondary research focus on the lower ranked (mean category 2.0 to 3.0) pathways with estimated potential impacts >1 PgCO 2 e yr −1 (Supplementary Fig. 2 ). For these pathways, explicit, quantitative incorporation into broad-scale GHG management plans will require further focus on systems-level carbon/GHG understandings to inspire confidence at all stages of action and/or identifying locations likely to support durable GHG mitigation, for example ref. 16 . Examples of this group include avoided loss and degradation of boreal forests (for example, fire, pests and pathogens and albedo 16 ) and effective mesopelagic fishery management, which some individual studies estimate would avoid future reductions of the currently sequestered 1.5–2.0 PgC yr −1 (refs. 17 , 18 ). These pathways may turn out to have higher or lower potential than the expert review suggests, on the basis of individual studies (Supplementary Data ) but strong support will require further, independent verification of that potential.

We note that category 3 rankings by expert elicitation do not necessarily imply non-viability but simply that much more research is needed to confidently incorporate actions into quantitative GHG mitigation plans. We found an unsurprising trend of lower readiness categorization with lower pathway familiarity (Supplementary Fig. 3 ). This correlation may result from two, non-exclusive potential causes: (1) lower elicitor expertise in some pathways (inevitable, although the panel was explicitly chosen for global perspectives, connections and diverse specialties) and (2) an actual lack of scientific evidence in the literature, which leads to that self-reported lack of familiarity, a common finding in the literature review (Supplementary Data ). Both explanations suggest a need to better consolidate, develop and disseminate the science in each pathway for global utility and recognition.

Our focus on GHG-related benefits in no way diminishes the substantial conservation, environmental and social cobenefits of these pathways (Supplementary Table 4 ), which often exceed their perceived climate benefits 1 , 19 , 20 , 21 . Where experts found climate impacts to remain highly uncertain but other NbS benefits are clear (for example, biodiversity and water quality; Supplementary Table 4 ), other incentives or financing mechanisms independent of carbon crediting should be pursued. While the goals here directly relate to using NbCS as a reliably quantifiable part of global climate action planning and thus strong GHG-related scientific foundations, non-climate NbS projects may provide climate benefits that are less well constrained (and thus less useful from a GHG budgeting standpoint) but also valuable. Potential trade-offs, if any, between ecosystem services and management actions, such as biodiversity and positive GHG outcomes, should be explored to ensure the best realization of desired goals 2 .

Finally, our focus in this study was on broad-scale NbCS potential in quantitative mitigation planning because of the principal and necessary role of NbCS in overall global warming targets. We recognize the range of project conditions that may increase, or decrease, the rigour of any pathway outside the global-scale focus here. We did not specifically evaluate the large and increasing number of crediting concepts (by pathway: Supplementary Data ), focusing rather on the underlying scientific body of knowledge within those pathways. Some broad pathways may have better defined sub-pathways within them, with a smaller potential scale of impact but potentially lower uncertainty (for example, macroalgae harvest cycling). Poorly enacted NbCS actions and/or crediting methodologies at project scales may result in loss of benefits even from high-ranking pathways 22 , 23 , 24 and attention to implementation should be paramount. Conversely, strong, careful project-scale methodologies may make lower readiness pathways beneficial for a given site.

Viable NbCS are vital to global climate change mitigation but NbCS pathways that lack strong scientific underpinnings threaten global accounting by potentially overestimating future climate benefits and eroding public trust in rigorous natural solutions. Both the review of the scientific literature and the expert elicitation survey identified high potential ready-to-implement pathways (for example, tropical reforestation), reinforcing present use of NbCS in planning.

However, uncertainty remains about the quantifiable GHG mitigation of some active and nascent NbCS pathways. On the basis of the expert elicitation survey and review of the scientific literature, we are concerned that large-scale implementation of less scientifically well-founded NbCS pathways in mitigation plans may undermine net GHG budget planning; those pathways require more study before they can be confidently promoted at broad scales and life-cycle analyses to integrate system-level emissions when calculating totals. The expert elicitation judgements suggest a precautionary approach to scaling lower confidence pathways until the scientific foundations are strengthened, especially for NbCS pathways with insufficient measurement and monitoring 10 , 24 , 25 or poorly understood or measured net GHG mitigation potentials 16 , 26 , 27 , 28 . While the need to implement more NbCS pathways for reducing GHG emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere is urgent, advancing the implementation of poorly quantified pathways (in relation to their GHG mitigation efficacy) could give the false impression that they can balance ongoing, fossil emissions, thereby undermining overall support for more viable NbCS pathways. Explicitly targeting research to resolve these uncertainties in the baseline science could greatly bolster confidence in the less-established NbCS pathways, benefiting efforts to reduce GHG concentrations 29 .

The results of this study should inform both market-based mechanisms and non-market approaches to NbCS pathway management. Research and action that elucidates and advances pathways to ensure a solid scientific basis will provide confidence in the foundation for successfully implementing NbCS as a core component of global GHG management.

NbCS pathway selection

We synthesized scientific publications for nine biomes (boreal forests, coastal blue carbon, freshwater wetlands, grasslands, open ocean blue carbon, peatlands, shrublands, temperate forests and tropical forests) and three cultivation types (agroforestry, croplands and macroalgae aquaculture) (hereafter, systems) and the different pathways through which they may be able to remove carbon or reduce GHG emissions. Shrublands and grasslands were considered as independent ecosystems; nonetheless, we acknowledge that there is overlap in the numbers presented here because shrublands are often included with grasslands 5 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 .

The 12 systems were chosen because they have each been identified as having potential for emissions reductions or carbon removal at globally relevant scales. Within these systems, we identified 43 pathways which either have carbon credit protocols formally established or informally proposed for review (non-carbon associated credits were not evaluated). We obtained data on carbon crediting protocols from international, national and regional organizations and registries, such as Verra, American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, Gold Standard, Clean Development Mechanism, FAO and Nori. We also obtained data from the Voluntary Registry Offsets Database developed by the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project and Carbon Direct company 34 . While we found evidence of more Chinese carbon crediting protocols, we were not able to review these because of limited publicly available information. To maintain clarity and avoid misrepresentation, we used the language as written in each protocol. A full list of the organizations and registries for each system can be found in the Supplementary Data .

Literature searches and synthesis

We reviewed scientific literature and reviews (for example, IPCC special reports) to identify studies reporting data on carbon stocks, GHG dynamics and sequestration potential of each system. Peer-reviewed studies and meta-analyses were identified on Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar using simple queries combining the specific practice or pathway names or synonyms (for example, no-tillage, soil amendments, reduced stocking rates, improved forest management, avoided forest conversion and degradation, avoided mangrove conversion and degradation) and the following search terms: ‘carbon storage’, ‘carbon stocks’, ‘carbon sequestration’, ‘carbon sequestration potential’, ‘additional carbon storage’, ‘carbon dynamics’, ‘areal extent’ or ‘global’.

The full literature review was conducted between January and October 2021. We solicited an independent, external review of the syntheses (obtaining from at least three external reviewers per natural or working system; see p. 2 of the Supplementary Data ) as a second check against missing key papers or misinterpretation of data. The review was generally completed in March 2022. Data from additional relevant citations were added through October 2022 as they were discovered. For a complete list of all literature cited, see pp. 217–249 of the Supplementary Data .

From candidate papers, the papers were considered if their results/data could be applied to the following central questions:

How much carbon is stored (globally) at present in the system (total and on average per hectare) and what is the confidence?

At the global level, is the system a carbon source or sink at this time? What is the business-as-usual projection for its carbon dynamics?

Is it possible, through active management, to either increase net carbon sequestration in the system or prevent carbon emissions from that system? (Note that other GHG emissions and forcings were included here as well.)

What is the range of estimates for how much extra carbon could be sequestered globally?

How much confidence do we have in the present methods to detect any net increases in carbon sequestration in a system or net changes in areal extent of that?

From each paper, quantitative estimates for the above questions were extracted for each pathway, including any descriptive information/metadata necessary to understand the estimate. In addition, information on sample size, sampling scheme, geographic coverage, timeline of study, timeline of projections (if applicable) and specific study contexts (for example, wind-break agroforestry) were recorded.

We also tracked where the literature identified trade-offs between carbon sequestered or CO 2 emissions reduced and emissions of other GHG (for example, N 2 O or methane) for questions three and five above. For example, wetland restoration can result in increased CO 2 uptake from the atmosphere. However, it can also increase methane and N 2 O emissions to the atmosphere. Experts were asked to consider the uncertainty in assessing net GHG mitigation as they categorized the NbCS pathways.

Inclusion of each pathway in mitigation protocols and the specific carbon registries involved were also identified. These results are reported (grouped or individually as appropriate) in the Supplementary Data , organized by the central questions and including textual information for interpretation. The data and protocol summaries for each of the 12 systems were reviewed by at least three scientists each and accordingly revised.

These summaries were provided to the expert elicitation group as optional background information.

Unit conversions

Since this synthesis draws on literature from several sources that use different methods and units, all carbon measurements were standardized to the International System of Units (SI units). When referring to total stocks for each system, numbers are reported in SI units of elemental carbon (that is, PgC). When referring to mitigation potential, elemental carbon was converted to CO 2 by multiplying by 3.67. Differences in methodology, such as soil sampling depth, make it difficult to standardize across studies. Where applicable, the specific measurement used to develop each stock estimate is reported.

Expert elicitation process

To assess conclusions brought about by the initial review process described above, we conducted an expert elicitation survey to consolidate and add further, independent assessments to the original literature review. The expert elicitation survey design followed best practice recommendations 14 , with a focus on participant selection, explicitly defining uncertainty, minimizing cognitive and overconfidence biases and clarity of focus. Research on expert elicitation suggests that 6–12 responses are sufficient for a stable quantification of responses 15 . We identified >40 potential experts via a broad survey of leading academics, science-oriented NGO and government agency publications and products. These individuals have published on several NbCS pathways or could represent larger research efforts that spanned the NbCS under consideration. Careful attention was paid to the gender and sectoral breakdown of respondents to ensure equitable representation. Of the invitees, ten completed the full elicitation effort. Experts were offered compensation for their time.

Implementation of the expert elicitation process followed the IDEA protocol 15 . Briefly, after a short introductory interview, the survey was sent to the participants. Results were anonymized and standardized (methods below) and a meeting held with the entire group to discuss the initial results and calibrate understanding of questions. The purpose of this meeting was not to develop consensus on a singular answer but to discuss and ensure that all questions are being considered in the same way (for example, clarifying any potentially confusing language, discussing any questions that emerged as part of the process). The experts then revisited their initial rankings to provide final, anonymous rankings which were compiled in the same way. These final rankings are the results presented here and may be the same or different from the initial rankings, which were discarded.

Survey questions

The expert elicitation survey comprised five questions for each pathway. The data were collected via Google Forms and collated anonymously at the level of pathways, with each respondent contributing one datapoint for each pathway. The experts reported their familiarity (or the familiarity of the organization whose work they were representing) with the pathway and other cobenefits for the pathways.

The initial question ranked the NbCS pathway by category, from one to three.

Category 1 was defined as a pathway with sufficient scientific knowledge to support a high-quality carbon accounting system today (for example, meets the scientific criteria identified in the WWF-EDF-Oeko Institut and ICAO TAB) or to support the development of such a system today. The intended interpretation is that sufficient science is available for quantifying and verifying net GHG mitigation. Note that experts were not required to reference any given ‘high-quality’ crediting framework, which were provided only as examples. In other words, the evaluation was not intended to rank a given framework (for example, ref. 35 ) but rather expert confidence in the fundamental scientific understandings that underpin potential for carbon accounting overall. To this end, no categorization of uncertainty was required (reviewers could skip categorizations they felt were not necessary) and space was available to fill in new categories by individual reviewers (if they felt a category was missing or needed). Uncertainties at this category 1 level are deemed ‘acceptable’, for example, not precluding accounting now, although more research may further substantiate high-quality credits.

Category 2 pathways have a good chance (>25%) that with more research and within the next 5 years, the pathway could be developed into a high-quality pathway for carbon accounting and as a nature-based climate solution pathway. For these pathways, further understanding is needed for factors such as baseline processes, long-term stability, unconstrained fluxes, possible leakage or other before labelling as category 1 but the expert is confident that information can be developed, in 5 years or less, with more work. The >25% chance threshold and 5-year timeframe were determined a priori to reflect and identify pathways that experts identified as having the potential to meet the Paris Accord 2030 goal. Other thresholds (for example, longer timeframes) could have been chosen, which would impact the relative distribution of pathways in categories 2 and 3 (for example, a longer timeframe allowed could move some pathways from category 3 into category 2, for some reviewers). We emphasize that category 3 pathways do not necessarily mean non-valuable approaches but longer timeframes required for research than the one set here.

Category 3 responses denoted pathways that the expert thought had little chance (<25%) that with more research and within the next 5 years, this pathway could be developed into a suitable pathway for managing as a natural solutions pathway, either because present evidence already suggests GHG reduction is not likely to be viable, co-emissions or other biophysical feedbacks may offset those gains or because understanding of key factors is lacking and unlikely to be developed within the next 5 years. Notably, the last does not mean that the NbCS pathway is not valid or viable in the long-term, simply that physical and biological understandings are probably not established enough to enable scientific rigorous and valid NbCS activity in the near term.

The second question asked the experts to identify research gaps associated with those that they ranked as category 2 pathways to determine focal areas for further research. The experts were asked to rank concerns about durability (ability to predict or compensate for uncertainty in timescale of effectiveness due to disturbances, climate change, human activity or other factors), geographic uncertainty (place-to-place variation), leakage or displacement (spillover of activities to other areas), measuring, reporting and verification (MRV, referring to the ability to quantify all salient stocks and fluxes to fully assess climate impacts), basic mechanisms of action (fundamental science), scaling potential (ability to estimate potential growth) and setting of a baseline (ability to reasonably quantify additionality over non-action, a counterfactual). Respondents could also enter a different category if desired. For complete definitions of these categories, see the survey instrument ( Supplementary Information ). This question was not asked if the expert ranked the pathway as category 1, as those were deemed acceptable, or for category 3, respecting the substantial uncertainty in that rating. Note that responses were individual and so the same NbCS pathway could receive (for example) several individual category 1 rankings, which would indicate reasonable confidence from those experts, and several category 2 rankings from others, which would indicate that those reviewers have lingering concerns about the scientific basis, along with their rankings of the remaining key uncertainties in those pathways. These are important considerations, as they reflect the diversity of opinions and research priorities; individual responses are publicly available (anonymized: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7859146 ).

The third question involved quantification of the potential for moving from category 2 to 1 explicitly. Following ref. 14 , the respondents first reported the lowest plausible value for the potential likelihood of movement (representing the lower end of a 95% confidence interval), then the upper likelihood and then their best guess for the median/most likely probability. They were also asked for the odds that their chosen interval contained the true value, which was used to scale responses to standard 80% credible intervals and limit overconfidence bias 13 , 15 . This question was not asked if the expert ranked the pathway as category 3, respecting the substantial uncertainty in that rating.

The fourth question involved the scale of potential impact from the NbCS, given the range of uncertainties associated with effectiveness, area of applicability and other factors. The question followed the same pattern as the third, first asking about lowest, then highest, then best estimate for potential scale of impact (in PgCO 2 e yr −1 ). Experts were again asked to express their confidence in their own range, which was used to scale to a standard 80% credible interval. This estimate represents a consolidation of the best-available science by the reviewers. For a complete review including individual studies and their respective findings, see the Supplementary Data . This question was not asked if the expert ranked the pathway as category 3, respecting the substantial uncertainty in that rating.

Final results

After collection of the final survey responses, results were anonymized and compiled by pathway. For overall visualization and discussion purposes, responses were combined into a mean and 20th to 80th percentile range. The strength of the expert elicitation process lies in the collection of several independent assessments. Those different responses represent real differences in data interpretation and synthesis ascribed by experts. This can have meaningful impacts on decision-making by different individuals and organizations (for example, those that are more optimistic or pessimistic about any given pathway). Therefore, individual anonymous responses were retained by pathway to show the diversity of responses for any given pathway. The experts surveyed, despite their broad range of expertise, ranked themselves as less familiar with category 3 pathways than category 1 or 2 (linear regression, P  < 0.001, F  = 59.6 2, 394 ); this could be because of a lack of appropriate experts—although they represented all principal fields—or simply because the data are limited in those areas.

Sensitivity

To check for robustness against sample size variation, we conducted a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the data on each pathway to generate responses of a further ten hypothetical experts. Briefly, the extra samples were randomly drawn from the observed category ranking mean and standard deviations for each individual pathway and appended to the original list; values <1 or >3 were truncated to those values. This analysis resulted in only minor differences in the mean categorization across all pathways: the mean difference between the original and the boot-strapped data was 0.02 (s.d. = 0.05) with an absolute difference average of 0.06 (s.d. = 0.06). The maximum difference in means across all pathways was 0.20 (s.d. = 0.20) (Supplementary Table 2 ). The results suggest that the response values are stable to additional responses.

All processing was done in R 36 , with packages including fmsb 37 and forcats 38 .

Data availability

Anonymized expert elicitation responses are available on Zenodo 39 : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7859146 .

Code availability

R code for analysis available on Zenodo 39 : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7859146 .

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported through gifts to the Environmental Defense Fund from the Bezos Earth Fund, King Philanthropies and Arcadia, a charitable fund of L. Rausing and P. Baldwin. We thank J. Rudek for help assembling the review and 30 experts who reviewed some or all of those data and protocol summaries (Supplementary Data ). S.M. was supported by a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation and Battelle that sponsors the National Ecological Observatory Network programme.

Author information

Present address: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA

Present address: AtmoFacts, Longmont, CO, USA

R. N. Lubowski

Present address: Lombard Odier Investment Managers, New York, NY, USA

Present address: Ecological Carbon Offset Partners LLC, dba EP Carbon, Minneapolis, MN, USA

L. A. Moore

Present address: , San Francisco, CA, USA

J. Paltseva

Present address: ART, Arlington, VA, USA

N. A. Randazzo

Present address: NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, USA

Present address: University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

N. Uludere Aragon

Present address: Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA

These authors contributed equally: B. Buma, D. R. Gordon.

Authors and Affiliations

Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, USA

B. Buma, D. R. Gordon, K. M. Kleisner, A. Bartuska, J. R. Collins, A. J. Eagle, R. Fujita, E. Holst, J. M. Lavallee, R. N. Lubowski, C. Melikov, L. A. Moore, E. E. Oldfield, J. Paltseva, A. M. Raffeld, N. A. Randazzo, C. Schneider, N. Uludere Aragon & S. P. Hamburg

Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA

Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

D. R. Gordon

Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA

A. Bartuska

International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, USA

Department of Ecology Evolution and Environmental Biology and the Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA

Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

P. Friedlingstein

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure/Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France

National Ecological Observatory Network, Battelle, Boulder, CO, USA

Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA

Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

J. N. Sanchirico

Department of Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

J. R. Collins

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Contributions

D.R.G. and B.B. conceived of and executed the study design. D.R.G., K.M.K., J.R.C., A.J.E., R.F., E.H., J.M.L., R.N.L., C.M., L.A.M., E.E.O., J.P., A.M.R., N.A.R., C.S. and N.U.A. coordinated and conducted the literature review. G.M. and B.B. primarily designed the survey. A. Bartuska, A. Bidlack, B.B., J.N.S., K.N., P.E., P.F., R.D. and S.M. contributed to the elicitation. B.B. conducted the analysis and coding. S.P.H. coordinated funding. B.B. and D.R.G. were primary writers; all authors were invited to contribute to the initial drafting.

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Correspondence to B. Buma .

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The authors declare no competing interests. In the interest of full transparency, we note that while B.B., D.R.G., K.M.K., A.B., J.R.C., A.J.E., R.F., E.H., J.M.L., R.N.L., C.M., L.A.M., E.E.O., J.P., A.M.R., N.A.R., C.S., N.U.A., S.P.H. and P.E. are employed by organizations that have taken positions on specific NbCS frameworks or carbon crediting pathways (not the focus of this work), none have financial or other competing interest in any of the pathways and all relied on independent science in their contributions to the work.

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Nature Climate Change thanks Camila Donatti, Connor Nolan and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary Tables 1–4, Figs. 1–3 and survey instrument.

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Buma, B., Gordon, D.R., Kleisner, K.M. et al. Expert review of the science underlying nature-based climate solutions. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01960-0

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I want to have more energy, build muscle, and increase my stamina. A nutritionist said to eat more snacks.

• A 40-year-old woman submitted an average day of eating to be reviewed for  Insider's Nutrition Clinic .
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Vernor Vinge, Innovative Science Fiction Novelist, Dies at 79

He conceived an early version of cyberspace and predicted the “technological singularity,” a tipping point at which machines would become smarter than humans.

By Richard Sandomir

Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and prolific science fiction author who in the 1980s wrote a novella that offered an early glimpse of what became known as cyberspace, and who soon after that hypothesized that artificial intelligence would outstrip human intelligence, died on March 20 in the La Jolla area of San Diego. He was 79.

James Frenkel, who edited nearly all of his work since 1981, said the cause of death, in an assisted living facility, was Parkinson’s disease.

David Brin , a science fiction writer and a friend of Mr. Vinge’s, said in a tribute on Facebook, “Vernor enthralled millions with tales of plausible tomorrows, made all the more vivid by his polymath masteries of language, drama, characters and the implications of science.”

Mr. Vinge (pronounced VIN-jee) was renowned for his novella “True Names” (1981), in which he created an early version of cyberspace — a virtual reality technology he called the “Other Plane” — a year before William Gibson gave the nascent digital ecosystem its name in a story, “Burning Chrome,” and three years later popularized the word in his novel “Neuromancer.”

In “True Names,” Mr. Slippery, one of the anonymous computer hackers known as warlocks who work within the Other Plane, is identified and caught by the government (the “Great Enemy”) and forced to help stop a threat posed by another warlock.

In a 2001 article about Mr. Vinge, Katie Hafner, at the time a technology reporter for The New York Times, wrote that “True Names” “portrays a world rife with pseudonymous characters and other elements of online life that now seem almost ho-hum,” adding that in retrospect the book seemed “prophetic.”

Mr. Vinge’s immersion in computers at San Diego State University, where he began teaching in 1972, led to his vision of a “technological singularity,” a tipping point at which the intelligence of machines possesses and then exceeds that of humans.

He described an early version of his vision in Omni magazine in 1983 .

“We’re at the point of accelerating the evolution of intelligence itself,” he wrote, adding, “Whether our work is cast in silicon or DNA will have little effect on the ultimate results.” He wrote that the moment of the intellectual transition would be as “impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole,” and that at that moment “the world will pass far beyond our understanding.”

A decade later, he fleshed out the intellectual transition — the singularity — in a paper (subtitled “How to Survive in the Post-Human Era”) for a symposium sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute.

“Within 30 years,” he said, “we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive?”

That prediction has not come true, but artificial intelligence has accelerated to the point that some people fear that the technology will replace them.

Mr. Frenkel said that Mr. Vinge had used the concept of singularities in his “Zones of Thought” series, in which they are superintelligent beings in a part of the galaxy called the Transcend.

“They are entities of pure thought,” Mr. Frenkel said in an interview. “They’re enormously powerful. Some are beneficent and some are malevolent.”

Two of the novels in that series, “A Fire Upon the Deep” (1993) and “A Deepness in the Sky” (2000), won the Hugo Award, the top honor in science fiction. Mr. Vinge received Hugos for another novel, “Rainbows End” (2007), and for the novellas “Fast Times at Fairmont High” (2002) and “The Cookie Monster" (2004).

Reviewing “A Fire Upon the Deep” in Wired magazine, Peter Schwartz wrote: “Not since William Gibson gave us the fully realized world of cyberspace in ‘Neuromancer’ has anyone given us so rich a diet of new ideas. Imagine a universe where the laws of physics vary along the axis of the great wheel of the Milky Way galaxy.”

Vernor Steffen Vinge was born on Oct. 2, 1944, in Waukesha, Wis., and moved with his family to East Lansing, Mich., where his father, Clarence, taught geography at Michigan State University. His mother, Ada Grace (Rowlands) Vinge, was a geographer who wrote two books with her husband.

After graduating from Michigan State with a bachelor’s degree in mathematics in 1966, Mr. Vinge received his master’s degree and his Ph.D. in the same subject at the University of California, San Diego, in 1968 and 1971. He began teaching math at San Diego State University in 1972 but shifted to computer science after he began “playing with real computers” in the early 1970s, he told The Times. He retired in 2000 to focus on writing.

“Vernor liked teaching, and was very popular with students, but he mentioned he could only really find time to write between semesters (principally summers),” John Carroll, a colleague in the computer science department at San Diego State and the executor of his estate, wrote in an email. “Something had to give, and his teaching could be done by others, but the increased flow of novels and ideas was irreplaceable.”

Mr. Vinge’s first published short story, “Apartness,” appeared in New Worlds magazine in 1965. Four years later, he published his first novel, “Grimm’s World,” which revolves around a 700-year-old science fiction magazine — published on a gargantuan globe-traveling barge — that is the source of technological progress in the world.

His marriage to Joan Dennison in 1972 ended in divorce seven years later, but they remained friends. As Joan Vinge, she has won five Hugo Awards. She married Mr. Frenkel, who is her editor, in 1980. Mr. Vinge’s sister, Patricia Vinge, is his only immediate survivor.

Mr. Vinge was teaching networks and operating systems when he got the idea for “True Names.” He had been using an early form of instant messaging called Talk in the late 1970s when he and another user tried to figure out each other’s names.

“Finally, I gave up and told the other person I had to go — that I was actually a personality simulator, and if I kept talking, my artificial nature would become obvious,” he was quoted as saying in the 2001 Times article. “Afterwards I realized that I had just lived a science fiction story.”

Mr. Vinge occasionally returned to the subject of the singularity.

When he was interviewed in 2000 for the NPR program “Fresh Air,” he said his prognostication was inspired in part by Moore’s Law, which was posited in 1965 by Gordon Moore , then the head of research and development at Fairchild Semiconductor and later a founder of Intel. The law stated that every year the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double, without much of a rise in cost, exponentially increasing the power of computing. Mr. Moore later amended it to every two years.

The logical conclusion suggested by Moore’s Law, Mr. Vinge said, was that “we will hit a crossover point” that would make computers as intellectually powerful as humans — “assuming someone can program them.”

Richard Sandomir is an obituaries writer. He previously wrote about sports media and sports business. He is also the author of several books, including “The Pride of the Yankees: Lou Gehrig, Gary Cooper and the Making of a Classic.” More about Richard Sandomir